Executive Summary
Forecasts for stock markets, economic indicators and many other metrics have been consistently wrong. Since forecasts are repeatedly wrong, the best is to create scenarios (base case, optimistic and pessimistic) and assign probabilities based on information available on hand at that point in time. Higher productivity in US is triggering an increase in real wages which spurs consumption, and this is attributed to technology. But the puzzle element here is that this is true only for US while Europe and other parts of the world are yet to experience an increase in productivity. We could identify a lack of connect between yields and stocks across markets. Asia (read China) has been hogging the limelight (for the wrong reasons probably), Latin America is hogging the same limelight for the right reasons thanks to Argentina whose new boss Javier Milei has triggered a stock market boom. While 2024 has produced fantastic stock market returns across the world, many investors still have this “FOMO” feeling when it comes to Bitcoins. However, it is a speculative pull (demand being more than supply). Technology platforms are a productivity boon; however, AI related technologies appear to be depleting ability to think. Technology cannot and should not replace fundamental thinking and understanding of concepts.
